Earth Overshoot Day – from Grandma to Trump

I only ever doubted my grandma once. We were sat genially together on the sofa one Christmas watching the film Gandhi, when suddenly she declared ‘I’ve met him!’. Given my grandma worked in the local co-op, couldn’t drive, rarely left the local town, let alone the country, and had certainly never ventured as far as India, I found this highly unlikely. Wrong. Turned out she worked in the Lancashire cotton mills when Gandhi paid a visit. Grandma was telling the truth. I should have known. Lesson learned.

What I am sure of is that she never met President Obama. But the two are intrinsically linked in my mind as I recall their words on every occasion when I find myself descending into despair at the state of the world and deciding ‘We’re doomed’, like some modern-day Private John Frazer. 

My grandma comes to mind first, delivering one hell of a reality check to my mother. With the fall of the twin towers and rising threats from international terrorism, my mother unburdened her anxiety to grandma, questioning the wisdom of my brother bringing children into this world, worrying about the fate of her grandchildren. ‘Well what do you think we thought when you were born in 1942?’ retorted grandma. Well quite. The world at war, England ablaze during the Blitz, Nazis committing unspeakable atrocities. Maybe things aren’t that bad after all. My mother, now in her 80s, has lived almost her entire life in peacetime.

Obama’s position, witnessed in an online interview, was more nuanced and went something like this: ‘if you knew you were about to be reborn, but you didn’t know where, what sex you would be, what religion, what sexual proclivity, with what capabilities – then in what year would you choose to be reborn’? The answer, he argued, would always be today. Because no matter how bad things are, they are better than they were, and you’d have the highest chance of landing somewhere supportive of your attributes.

But I’m not sure if either of these comfort blankets offer much reassurance today. On January 28^th the Doomsday Clock ticked to 89 seconds to midnight. The closest we’ve been post-war to global disaster. Climate change continues unabated and oft-times forgotten as strong men sitting atop powerful nations command attention, hell bent on carving up the world to the detriment of smaller countries. At a time when we are most in need of strong leadership from the free world, it falls to a man who instead turns his back and decides to join them, shattering the western alliance. In 2024 Oxfam declared that the richest 1% have more wealth than the bottom 95% of the world’s population. The richest of these billionaires stood behind the tyrant as he was inaugurated. Morality abandoned in the incessant pursuit of yet more wealth. 

How much is enough? Greed rules. Literally. 

I work in sustainability. The notion that we should meet our daily needs in a way that does not prevent future generations from meeting theirs. The technological and scientific advances of the last few centuries should mean that by now we can provide the basics of food, shelter and clothing by lunchtime and be free most of our days to indulge in our chosen passion, be it sport, art, science or alternatively to just rest, socialise, be human.

But materialism kills this dream and warms our planet. When we have a home we want it to be bigger to redecorate it, stuff it with appliances. When we have enough food available locally, we want greater and unseasonal variety, more complex flavours and preparation. When we are comfortably clothed, we jettison perfectly serviceable attire to stay fashionable.

Earth Overshoot Day is the day each year when we exceed the capacity of our planet to replenish our consumption. It comes earlier each year. Last year it was August 1^st , this year it is today July 24th.

History tells us that extinction threatens a species or population that destroys its home. We are likely to be the first species that does this in full knowledge of what it is doing and with an overwhelming capacity to avoid it – just lacking the collective will, collective compassion.

The tipping points are what will get us. The point at which the ball gets pushed over the top of the hill and runs away from us, unstoppable. Too late. Nothing we can do. Positive feedback loops. When ecosystems start to die becoming a carbon source not a sink as methane from rotting vegetation exceeds sequestration. When the ice at the poles melts and no longer reflects the sun’s rays, which get absorbed instead by the melt water which warms to threaten the remaining ice. When the seas reach a temperature where carbon dioxide no longer dissolves but starts being emitted.

Then the world’s most powerful men will find they are powerless against nature. Gaia will fight back harder than any nuclear weapon. A black Amex card will be no protection against mass mobilisation fuelled by starvation as crops fail and families starve. We won’t all stand by politely and watch food go to the highest bidder. 

You see, we don’t need to save the planet. The planet will be fine. It’s been around for over 4 billion years and will be around for billions more. It’s Homo sapiens that needs saving. If climate change or nuclear annihilation finishes us off, the planet will breathe a sigh of relief and create the next wondrous ecosystem. No-one will be there to remember Homo sapiens if we evolve into Homo stultus and outstay our welcome.